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Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe

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  • Romain Rancière

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Aaron Tornell

    (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - University of California)

  • Athanasio Vamvakidis

    (IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

We analyze the dual role of currency mismatch: as a vehicle that exposes the economy to systemic risk, but also as an engine of growth. We do so at the macro and the micro levels for emerging European economies in recent years. At the aggregate level, we construct a new index of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for lending made by banks to unhedged borrowers--i.e., those with no foreign currency income. Using our index, we find that across emerging European economies, increases in currency mismatch are associated with higher growth in tranquil times, but with a greater severity of crisis. These results are also confirmed for a broader sample of emerging economies. On net, after taking into account the crisis period, we find a positive link between currency mismatch and growth. In our firm-level analysis, we find that currency mismatch helps relax borrowing constraints and enhances firms' growth in emerging Europe. These effects are stronger across sets of financially constrained firms--those that are small and are in nontradables sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00967419, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00967419
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00967419
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    3. Aylin Aslan & Burcu Tunç, 2017. "Measuring the foreign exchange position for the corporate sector: CBRT's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    5. Nephil Matangi Maskay & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "On Remittances, Foreign Currency Exposure and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Nepal," CESifo Working Paper Series 5053, CESifo.
    6. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    7. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 219-236.
    8. Joseph Crowley, 2015. "Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2015/047, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mirna Dumičić & Vedran Šošić, 2014. "Credit cycles and central bank policy in Croatia: lessons from the 2000s," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 7, pages 96-113, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/069, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Fischer, Andreas M & Yesin, Pinar, 2019. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," CEPR Discussion Papers 13923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Elisabeth Beckmann & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Working Papers 188, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    13. George Anayiotos & Hovhannes Toroyan & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "The efficiency of emerging Europe’s banking sector before and after the recent economic crisis," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 247-267.
    14. Brown, M. & de Haas, R., 2010. "Foreign Currency Lending in Emerging Europe : Bank Level Evidence," Other publications TiSEM 29059e97-755d-4c51-b372-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    16. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.
    17. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    18. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.

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