IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-00967419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Romain Rancière

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Aaron Tornell

    (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - University of California)

  • Athanasio Vamvakidis

    (IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

We analyze the dual role of currency mismatch: as a vehicle that exposes the economy to systemic risk, but also as an engine of growth. We do so at the macro and the micro levels for emerging European economies in recent years. At the aggregate level, we construct a new index of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for lending made by banks to unhedged borrowers--i.e., those with no foreign currency income. Using our index, we find that across emerging European economies, increases in currency mismatch are associated with higher growth in tranquil times, but with a greater severity of crisis. These results are also confirmed for a broader sample of emerging economies. On net, after taking into account the crisis period, we find a positive link between currency mismatch and growth. In our firm-level analysis, we find that currency mismatch helps relax borrowing constraints and enhances firms' growth in emerging Europe. These effects are stronger across sets of financially constrained firms--those that are small and are in nontradables sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00967419, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00967419
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00967419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00967419/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    3. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    4. Christoph Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2009. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 216-228, August.
    5. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc‐Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    6. Arteta Carlos O., 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Currency Mismatches in Bank Intermediation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, May.
    7. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, February.
    8. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain & Thoenig, Mathias, 2009. "Growth and risk at the industry level: The real effects of financial liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 210-222, July.
    9. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    10. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
    11. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    2. Aylin Aslan & Burcu Tunç, 2017. "Measuring the foreign exchange position for the corporate sector: CBRT's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    4. Nephil Matangi Maskay & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "On Remittances, Foreign Currency Exposure and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Nepal," CESifo Working Paper Series 5053, CESifo.
    5. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 219-236.
    6. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    7. George Anayiotos & Hovhannes Toroyan & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "The efficiency of emerging Europe’s banking sector before and after the recent economic crisis," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 247-267.
    8. Brown, M. & de Haas, R., 2010. "Foreign Currency Lending in Emerging Europe : Bank Level Evidence," Other publications TiSEM 29059e97-755d-4c51-b372-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    10. Joseph Crowley, 2015. "Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 15/47, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/69, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mirna Dumičić & Vedran Šošić, 2014. "Credit cycles and central bank policy in Croatia: lessons from the 2000s," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.),Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 7, pages 96-113, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Fischer, Andreas M & Yesin, Pinar, 2019. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," CEPR Discussion Papers 13923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    16. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00967419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.