The macrodynamics of financial fragility within a hard peg arrangement
The paper presents an open-economy macrodynamical growth model with the aim of giving an endogenous characterisation to the process that leads a small country with a currency-board arrangement to accumulate dangerously high levels of external debt and become vulnerable to macroeconomic instability. The macrodynamics of the model results from the combination of the commitment to maintain the peg - that makes liquidity closely dependent on the dynamics of foreign reserves - and the non-linear real and financial interactions that drives the pro-cyclical behaviour of the economy. Within this context, the external financing ease during an economic upswing leads to debt-supported growth and financial fragility; the consequent deterioration of profitability expectations brings about a capital reversal that, in the absence of monetary stabilisation tools, makes the currency arrangement unsustainable. A financial crisis may thus turn into a currency crisis. We run a continuous-time estimation of a non-linear differential equations system for Argentina during the years of the currency-board arrangement. We find that two steady-state solutions exist. The local stability and sensitivity analysis show that both equilibria are unstable and that the qualitative nature of the equilibria depends in particular on lenders' responsiveness to the degree of leverage. We also show that relaxing the assumption on the currency arrangement and allowing for an autonomous monetary policy makes both equilibria stable.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001.
"Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints,"
4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008.
"Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," Research Department Publications 4581, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6747, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Mark L. Gertler, 1988.
"Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview,"
NBER Working Papers
2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
- Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
- Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
- Aaron Tornell, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth (September 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 359, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005.
"Systemic Crises and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1451, CESifo Group Munich.
- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Post-Print halshs-00754308, HAL.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Working Papers 190, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic crises and growth," Economics Working Papers 854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2004.
- Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988.
"Error Correction and Long Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
882R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Error Correction and Long-Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 967-80, July.
- Mulino, Marcella, 2002. "Currency boards, credibility and crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 381-386, December.
- Morishima,Michio, 1976. "The Economic Theory of Modern Society," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521291682, November.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perry, Guillermo & Serven, Luis, 2003. "The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3081, The World Bank.
- Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Maggi, Bernardo & Padoan, Pier Carlo & Guerrieri, Paolo, 2009. "A continuous time model of European growth, integration and technology diffusion: The role of distance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 631-640, May.
- Bernardo Maggi & Eleonora Cavallaro & Marcella Mulino, 2010. "Financial Fragility and Currency Crisis: a Macrodynamical Revisitation of the Argentina’s Experience," Working Papers - Dipartimento di Economia 8, Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome, revised 2010.
- Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000.
"Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:2164-2173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.