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Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis

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Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the growing literature on determinants of foreign currency loans in the countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), applying a metaregression approach. We consider the seven most common determinants presented in the literature and aim at obtaining a more clear-cut picture behind various effects related to differences in methods and data characteristics. In our meta-analysis we apply two alternative estimation methods and identify exchange rate volatility, foreign currency deposits and the minimum variance portfolio (i.e. the ratio of inflation volatility to real exchange rate volatility) as the most robust determinants of foreign currency loans. Our findings indicate that the results reported in the literature are systematically influenced by model specification, the econometric methodology applied and the country samples included in the papers.

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2011:i:4:b:2
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Beckmann & Anita Roitner & Helmut Stix, 2015. "A Local or a Foreign Currency Loan? Evidence on the Role of Loan Characteristics, Preferences of Households and the Effect of Foreign Banks," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-48.
    2. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    3. Péter Bauer & Mariann Endrész & Regina Kiss & Zsolt Kovalszky & Ádám Martonosi & Olivér Rácz & István Schindler, 2013. "Excessive household debt: causes, trends and consequences," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 28-36, October.
    4. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Foreign currency lending in Albania," MPRA Paper 79087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    6. Pál Péter Kolozsi & Csaba Lentner, 2020. "Consolidation and Legacy of Foreign Currency Household Lending in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    7. Beck, Roland & Langfield, Sam & Ĉervená, Marianna & Cocozza, Emidio & Francart, Alexandre & Pulst, Daniela & Ostrovskis, Gundars & Manolov, Stoyan & Evdjic, Stefanie & Jimborean, Ramona & Hake, Mariya, 2012. "Financial stability challenges for EU acceding and candidate countries: making financial systems more resilient in a challenging environment," Occasional Paper Series 136, European Central Bank.
    8. Elisabeth Beckmann, 2017. "How does foreign currency debt relief affect households’ loan demand? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-32.
    9. Pál Péter Kolozsi & Ádám Banai & Balázs Vonnák, 2015. "Phasing out household foreign currency loans: schedule and framework," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(3), pages 60-87.
    10. Thomas Scheiber & Julia Wörz, 2018. "How are reduced interest rate differentials affecting euroization in Southeastern Europe? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-18, pages 48-60.
    11. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:3:p:60-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 219-236.
    13. Antje Hildebrandt & Reiner Martin & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2012. "Residential Property Markets in CESEE EU Member States," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-30.
    14. Olta Manjani, 2015. "Estimating the Determinants of Financial Euroization in Albania," IHEID Working Papers 07-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    15. Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2018. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 351-374.
    16. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:656:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Krzysztof Czerkas, 2016. "The foreign currency mortgage loans in the Polish banking sector and its possible macroeconomic and political consequences," Lodz Economics Working Papers 8/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. IRC Expert Group of the ESCB, 2012. "Financial stability challenges for EU acceding and candidate countries: making financial systems more resilient in a challenging environment," Occasional Paper Series 136, European Central Bank.
    19. Mariya Hake & Fernando Lopez-Vicente & Luis Molina, 2014. "Do the Drivers of Loan Dollarization Differ between CESEE and Latin America? A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-35.
    20. Hudecz, András, 2012. "Párhuzamos történetek. A lakossági devizahitelezés kialakulása és kezelése Lengyelországban, Romániában és Magyarországon [Parallel stories. The development and treatment of household foreign-curre," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-411.
    21. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:171:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern Europe; foreign currency loans; metaregression; random effects maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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