Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe
Foreign currency loans to the unhedged non-banking sector are remarkably prevalent in Europe and create a significant exchange-rate-induced credit risk to European banking sectors. In particular, Swiss franc (CHF)-denominated loans, popular in Eastern European countries, could trigger simultaneous bank failures if depreciation of the domestic currencies prevents borrowers from servicing the loans. Foreign currency loans thus pose a systemic risk from a “common market shock” perspective. The author uses a novel dataset of foreign-currency loans from 17 countries for 2007-11 (collected by the Swiss National Bank) and builds on the method suggested by Ranciere, Tornell, and Vamvakidis (2010) to quantify this systemic risk. The author finds that systemic risk is substantial in the non-euro area, while it is relatively low in the euro area. However, CHF-denominated loans are not the underlying source of the high systemic risk: Loans denominated in other foreign currencies (probably to a large extent in euros) contribute significantly more to the systemic risk in the non-euro area than CHF-denominated loans. Furthermore, systemic risk shows high persistence and low volatility during the sample period. The author also finds that banks in Europe have continuously held more foreign-currency-denominated assets than liabilities, indicating their awareness of the exchange-rate-induced credit risk they face.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee|
Phone: ++41 (0)31 780 31 31
Fax: ++41 (0)31 780 31 00
Web page: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/
|Order Information:|| Postal: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011.
"Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe,"
171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
- Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002.
"Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
- Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy Hunter, 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
- Beer, Christian & Ongena, Steven & Peter, Marcel, 2010.
"Borrowing in foreign currency: Austrian households as carry traders,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2198-2211, September.
- Christian Beer & Steven Ongena & Marcel Peter, 2008. "Borrowing in Foreign Currency: Austrian Households as Carry Traders," Working Papers 2008-19, Swiss National Bank.
- Co-Pierre Georg, 2011. "Basel III ans Systemic Risk Regulation - What Way Forward?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 17-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornall & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," Post-Print halshs-00754418, HAL.
- Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Patrick McGuire, 2012.
"Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data can tell us and What More Data are Needed?,"
NBER Working Papers
18531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 235-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugenio Cerutti & Patrick M. McGuire & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking; What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?," IMF Working Papers 11/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
- de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic Risk: A Survey,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brown, Martin & de Haas, Ralph, 2012.
"Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe,"
36323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98, 01.
- Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, 02.
- George Allayannis & Gregory W. Brown & Leora F. Klapper, 2003. "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2710, December.
- Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
- Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (library)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.