IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/szg/worpap/1306.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Pinar Yesin

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

Foreign currency loans to the unhedged non-banking sector are remarkably prevalent in Europe and create a significant exchange-rate-induced credit risk to European banking sectors. In particular, Swiss franc (CHF)-denominated loans, popular in Eastern European countries, could trigger simultaneous bank failures if depreciation of the domestic currencies prevents borrowers from servicing the loans. Foreign currency loans thus pose a systemic risk from a “common market shock” perspective. The author uses a novel dataset of foreign-currency loans from 17 countries for 2007-11 (collected by the Swiss National Bank) and builds on the method suggested by Ranciere, Tornell, and Vamvakidis (2010) to quantify this systemic risk. The author finds that systemic risk is substantial in the non-euro area, while it is relatively low in the euro area. However, CHF-denominated loans are not the underlying source of the high systemic risk: Loans denominated in other foreign currencies (probably to a large extent in euros) contribute significantly more to the systemic risk in the non-euro area than CHF-denominated loans. Furthermore, systemic risk shows high persistence and low volatility during the sample period. The author also finds that banks in Europe have continuously held more foreign-currency-denominated assets than liabilities, indicating their awareness of the exchange-rate-induced credit risk they face.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe," Working Papers 13.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/working_papers/wp-1306.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: None
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
    2. Beer, Christian & Ongena, Steven & Peter, Marcel, 2010. "Borrowing in foreign currency: Austrian households as carry traders," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2198-2211, September.
    3. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 235-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brown, M. & Kirschenmann, K. & Ongena, S., 2009. "Foreign Currency Loans - Demand or Supply Driven?," Other publications TiSEM 75ee4df5-492e-4e1f-8dc4-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011. "Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2008. "Information Contagion and Bank Herding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 215-231, February.
    7. Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
    8. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornall & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754418, HAL.
    9. Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
    10. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    11. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00967419, HAL.
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    13. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
    14. George Allayannis & Gregory W. Brown & Leora F. Klapper, 2003. "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2710, December.
    15. Co-Pierre Georg, 2011. "Basel III ans Systemic Risk Regulation - What Way Forward?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 17-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    2. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    3. Małgorzata Skibińska, 2018. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 506-525, July.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    5. Signe Krogstrup & Cedric Tille, 2015. "On the roles of different foreign currencies in European bank lending," IHEID Working Papers 17-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 31 Aug 2015.
    6. Alin Marius Andries & Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yesin, 2015. "The impact of international swap lines on stock returns of banks in emerging markets," Working Papers 2015-07, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Gábor Dávid Kiss & Tamás Schuszter, 2015. "The Euro Crisis and Contagion among Central and Eastern European Currencies: Recommendations for Avoiding Lending in a Safe Haven Currency such as CHF," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(6), pages 678-698.
    8. Joseph Crowley, 2015. "Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2015/047, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fischer, Andreas M & Yesin, Pinar, 2019. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," CEPR Discussion Papers 13923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, March.
    11. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeșin, Pınar, 2017. "Reprint of: The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 153-172.
    12. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeșin, Pınar, 2017. "The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 215-234.
    13. Alin-Marius Andries & Florentina Melnic & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Systemic Risk and Bank Risk Taking," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 202-244, July.
    14. Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Reininger, 2014. "International Transmission of Credit Shocks: Evidence from Global Vector Autoregression Model," Working Papers 2014/05, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Krogstrup, Signe & Tille, Cédric, 2018. "Foreign currency bank funding and global factors," Kiel Working Papers 2104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Matthew Pritsker, 2017. "Choosing Stress Scenarios for Systemic Risk Through Dimension Reduction," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    17. Elisabetta Montanaro, 2016. "The process towards centralisation of the European financial supervisory architecture: The case of the Banking Union," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(277), pages 135-172.
    18. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    19. Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The drivers of foreign currency-based banking in Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, April.
    20. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Hanif, Waqas & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba, 2018. "Intraday return inefficiency and long memory in the volatilities of forex markets and the role of trading volume," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 433-450.
    21. Krzysztof Czerkas, 2016. "The foreign currency mortgage loans in the Polish banking sector and its possible macroeconomic and political consequences," Lodz Economics Working Papers 8/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    22. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:530:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Pinar Yeşin, 2014. "Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(1), pages 110-131, March.
    2. Elisabeth Beckmann & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Working Papers 188, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yesin, 2019. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," Working Papers 2019-04, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.
    5. Brown, M. & de Haas, R., 2010. "Foreign Currency Lending in Emerging Europe : Bank Level Evidence," Other publications TiSEM 29059e97-755d-4c51-b372-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98.
    8. Martin Brown & Karolin Kirschenmann & Steven Ongena, 2014. "Bank Funding, Securitization, and Loan Terms: Evidence from Foreign Currency Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1501-1534, October.
    9. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    10. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    11. Céspedes, Nikita, 2018. "La heterogeneidad de la dolarización de créditos a nivel de personas," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 35, pages 9-28.
    12. Elisabeth Beckmann, 2017. "How does foreign currency debt relief affect households’ loan demand? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-32.
    13. Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The drivers of foreign currency-based banking in Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, April.
    14. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Foreign currency lending in Albania," MPRA Paper 79087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Aiba, Daiju & Odajima, Ken & Khou, Vouthy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing and risk-hedging behavior: Evidence from Cambodian households," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    16. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    17. Alin Marius Andrieş & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Foreign Currency Positions of Banks: Evidence from Emerging Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 382-421, September.
    18. Krzysztof Czerkas, 2016. "The foreign currency mortgage loans in the Polish banking sector and its possible macroeconomic and political consequences," Lodz Economics Working Papers 8/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    19. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Dzsamila Vonnak, 2015. "Decomposing the Riskiness of Corporate Foreign Currency Lending: the Case of Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1528, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://szgerzensee.ch/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://szgerzensee.ch/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.