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Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

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  • Malgorzata Skibinska

Abstract

This paper analyses the di erences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Malgorzata Skibinska, 2017. "Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending," KAE Working Papers 2017-027, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2017027
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Equilibrium foreign currency mortgages," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 168-186, July.
    2. Muhammad Zahid & Faiza Khalid & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Zia Ul Haq & Wonseok Lee & Jinsoo Hwang & Jimin Shim, 2021. "The Significance of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in the Sustainable Development of the SAARC Economic Community," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign currency loans; lending currency structure; monetary policy and exchange rate shocks; CEE countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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