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Strengthening the role of local currencies in EU candidate and potential candidate countries

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  • Windischbauer, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper deals with the phenomenon of high levels of unofficial euroisation in countries preparing for EU membership (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey). The challenges stemming from unofficial euroisation are particularly relevant for central banks as high degrees of euroisation reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy and create risks to financial stability. Unofficial euroisation in these countries is fuelled by legacies of inflation and macroeconomic imbalances, close economic and financial linkages with the euro area, as well as the perspective of EU membership. While euroisation (or, more generally, dollarisation) is typically a sticky phenomenon that is difficult to reverse, entrenched as it is in the behaviour and mind-set of economic agents, the paper finds - based also on the experience of countries outside the region - that there is a set of policies under the competence of domestic authorities which are conducive to strengthening the use of domestic currencies, even though efforts to bring down dollarisation or euroisation rates typically take a long time to show results. In this context, macroeconomic stabilisation is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It needs to be flanked by targeted prudential and regulatory measures, as well as efforts to develop local currency capital markets. Authorities in EU candidate and potential candidate countries have already engaged in such endeavours and euroisation rates have gone down to some extent in recent years, though at different levels and at an uneven pace. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed, while acknowledging that some specific factors like the strong presence of euro area headquartered banks in these countries as well as their EU accession perspective are conducive to euroisation. JEL Classification: E42, E52, E58, F31, F41, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Windischbauer, Ulrich, 2016. "Strengthening the role of local currencies in EU candidate and potential candidate countries," Occasional Paper Series 170, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016170
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop170.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tanja Jakimova & Milan Eliskovski & Artina Bedzeti Baftijari, 2022. "Households’ euroization in the Republic of North Macedonia: Is it close or far from the optimal levels?," Working Papers 2022-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    2. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Geis, André & Gkrintzalis, Ioannis & Moder, Isabella & Polgár, Éva Katalin & Quaglietti, Lucia & Savelin, Li, 2019. "Financial stability assessment for EU candidate countries and potential candidates," Occasional Paper Series 233, European Central Bank.
    3. Moder, Isabella, 2021. "The transmission of euro area monetary policy to financially euroised countries," Working Paper Series 2611, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank regulation; capital markets; currency; dollarisation; euroisation; Financial Stability; monetary policy; prudential policy; South-East Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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