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Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations

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  • Honohan, Patrick

Abstract

Although the worldwide growth in dollarization of bank deposits has recently slowed, it has already reached very high levels in dozens of countries. Building on earlier findings that allowed the main cross-country variations in the share of dollars to be explained in terms of national policies and institutions, this paper turns to analysis of short-run variations, particularly the response of dollarization to exchange rate changes, which is shown to be too small to warrant"fear of floating"by dollarized economies. But high dollarization is shown to increase the risk of depreciation and even suspension, as indicated by interest rate spreads. While specific policy is needed to deal with the risks associated with dollarization, the underlying causes of unwanted dollarization should also be tackled.

Suggested Citation

  • Honohan, Patrick, 2007. "Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4172, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    4. Carlos E. León Rincón & Alejandro Revéiz Herault, 2008. "La dolarización financiera: experiencia internacional y perspectivas para Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 10(18), pages 313-341, January-J.
    5. Helmut Stix, 2011. "Euroization: what factors drive its persistence? Household data evidence for Croatia, Slovenia and Slovakia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2689-2704.
    6. Sunel, Enes, 2010. "On inflation, wealth inequality and welfare in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 25943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    9. Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2022. "An empirical behavioral model of household’s deposit dollarization," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 827-847, July.
    10. Kessy, Pantaleo, 2011. "Dollarization in Tanzania: empirical evidence and cross-country experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2009. "Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1860-1873, October.
    12. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    13. Amat Adarov & Kateryna Bornukova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Peter Havlik & Gabor Hunya & Dzmitry Kruk & Olga Pindyuk, 2016. "The Belarus Economy: The Challenges of Stalled Reforms," wiiw Research Reports 413, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    14. Helmut Stix, 2008. "Euroization: What Factors drive its Persistence?," Working Papers 140, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    15. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    16. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2022. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies: Dollarization, Domestic Inflation, and Income Divergence," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 186-210, June.
    17. Sunel, Enes, 2012. "Transitional Dynamics of Disinflation in a Small Open Economy with Heterogeneous Agents," MPRA Paper 39690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    19. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Krupkina, 2016. "Deposit dollarization and national currency depreciation in Russia and Kazakhstan," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note1, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Macroeconomic Management; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Financial Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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