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Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect

Author

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  • Anna Krupkina

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We apply empirical modelling set-ups developed to capture the hysteresis effect to the data on deposits dollar-ization in a cross-section of emerging market economies. Namely, we estimate nonlinear relationship that determines two equilibrium levels of deposit dollarization depending on its current dollarization value and the preceding episodes of sharp depreciation of the national currency over the past five years. When exchange rates are stable convergence to-wards higher equilibrium level of dollarization begins when the 45-50% threshold of deposit dollarization is exceeded. We estimate the model for short-run dynamics of dollarization and find that the speed of convergence towards higher equilibrium implies quarterly increase of the foreign currency deposits to total deposits ratio by 1.2-3 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps7, Bank of Russia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    2. Vsevolod Y. Cherkasov & Julia A. Maklakova, 2018. "Dollarization in Armenia: Structural Causes and Evolution of Monetary Policy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia, issue 4, pages 62-75, August.
    3. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Krupkina, 2016. "Deposit dollarization and national currency depreciation in Russia and Kazakhstan," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note1, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dollarization; hysteresis; nonlinear model; emerging markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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