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Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Aysen Arac

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

  • Funda Telatar

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

  • Erdinc Telatar

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the rate of inflation and the degree of the currency substitution for Turkey during 1986-2006. Our results show that the correlation coefficient between the two variables has not been constant over time. The results of the Multivariate GARCH model estimated to obtain the correlation coefficients indicate that there is a nonlinear relationship between the inflation rate and the degree of currency substitution. The main policy implication of our study is that it is difficult to stop or to reverse the currency substitution unless a confidence in the domestic currency is established.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2012. "Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20122, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hac:hacwop:20122
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    File URL: http://www.iktisat.hacettepe.edu.tr/WP/WP-2012-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency substitution; M-GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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