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The Economic Value Of Using Realized Volatility In Forecasting Future Implied Volatility

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  • Wing Hong Chan
  • Ranjini Jha
  • Madhu Kalimipalli

Abstract

Abstract We examine the economic benefits of using realized volatility to forecast future implied volatility for pricing, trading, and hedging in the S&P 500 index options market. We propose an encompassing regression approach to forecast future implied volatility, and hence future option prices, by combining historical realized volatility and current implied volatility. Although the use of realized volatility results in superior performance in the encompassing regressions and out-of-sample option pricing tests, we do not find any significant economic gains in option trading and hedging strategies in the presence of transaction costs. Copyright (c) 2009 The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

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  • Wing Hong Chan & Ranjini Jha & Madhu Kalimipalli, 2009. "The Economic Value Of Using Realized Volatility In Forecasting Future Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 231-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:32:y:2009:i:3:p:231-259
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    Cited by:

    1. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    2. Radovan Parrák, 2013. "The Economic Valuation of Variance Forecasts: An Artificial Option Market Approach," Working Papers IES 2013/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2013.
    3. Camille Cornand & Céline Gimet, 2011. "The 2007-2008 financial crisis : Is there evidence of disaster myopia ?," Working Papers 1125, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    5. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & Nathan Mauck & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "Predicting Extreme Returns And Portfolio Management Implications," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 471-492, December.
    6. repec:eee:phsmap:v:488:y:2017:i:c:p:39-45 is not listed on IDEAS

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