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New Forecasts of the Equity Premium

Author

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  • Christopher Polk
  • Samuel Thompson
  • Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Abstract

If investors are myopic mean-variance optimizers, a stock's expected return is linearly related to its beta in the cross section. The slope of the relation is the cross-sectional price of risk, which should equal the expected equity premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We also introduce novel statistical methods for testing stock-return predictability based on endogenous variables whose shocks are potentially correlated with return shocks. Our empirical tests show that the cross-sectional price of risk (1) is strongly correlated with the market's yield measures and (2) predicts equity-premium realizations especially in the first half of our 1927-2002 sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10406
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    2. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2007. "Modeling Financial Return Dynamics by Decomposition," Working Papers w0095, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    3. Salomons, Roelof, 2004. "Atactical implication of predictability: fighting the FED model," Research Report 04E07, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
    5. J. Bradford DeLong & Konstantin Magin, 2009. "The U.S. Equity Return Premium: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-208, Winter.
    6. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Understanding stock return predictability," Working Papers 2006-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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