Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market
We show that existing stocks that are currently traded in the U.S. stock market can be used to hedge political uncertainty. Focusing on the 2000 U.S. Presidential election, we construct two "presidential portfolios" composed of selected stocks anticipated to fare differently under a Bush versus a Gore presidency. To construct these portfolios we use data on campaign contributions by publicly traded corporations and identify the major contributors on each side. Using daily observations for the six months before the election took place, we show that the excess returns of these portfolios with respect to overall market movements are significantly related to changes in electoral polls.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Klaus Desmet, .
"Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk Sharing,"
- Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Klaus Desmet, 2004. "Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 758-787, July.
- Marco Celentani & J. Ignacio Conde & Klaus Desmet, 2002. "Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing," Economics Working Papers 593, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2003.
- Celentani, Marco & Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio & Desmet, Klaus, 2003. "Endogenous Policy Leads to Inefficient Risk-Sharing," CEPR Discussion Papers 3866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
- E. Thompson, 1966. "A pareto optimal group decision process," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 133-140, December.
- Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:137:y:2008:i:1:p:43-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.