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Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power

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  • Kim, Chansog (Francis)
  • Pantzalis, Christos
  • Chul Park, Jung

Abstract

We show that political geography has a pervasive effect on the cross-section of stock returns. We collect election results over a 40-year period and use a political alignment index (PAI) of each state's leading politicians with the ruling (presidential) party to proxy for local firms’ proximity to political power. Firms whose headquarters are located in high PAI states outperform those located in low PAI states, both in terms of raw returns, and on a risk-adjusted basis. Overall, although we cannot rule out indirect political connectedness advantages as an explanation of the PAI effect, our results are consistent with the notion that proximity to political power has stock return implications because it reflects firms’ exposure to policy risk.

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  • Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos & Chul Park, Jung, 2012. "Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 196-228.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:106:y:2012:i:1:p:196-228 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.05.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Peyer, Urs & Vermaelen, Theo, 2016. "Political affiliation and dividend tax avoidance: Evidence from the 2013 fiscal cliff," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 136-149.
    2. Bradley, Daniel & Pantzalis, Christos & Yuan, Xiaojing, 2016. "Policy risk, corporate political strategies, and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 254-275.
    3. Dang, Tri Vi & He, Qing, 2016. "Bureaucrats as successor CEOs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Yang, Miao & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2016. "The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 92-100.
    5. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Croci, Ettore & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul & Petmezas, Dimitris, 2017. "The role of corporate political strategies in M&As," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 260-287.
    7. Lin, Chih-Yung & Ho, Po-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2016. "Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 153-166.
    8. Carlos Viana de Carvalho & Eduardo Zilberman & Ruy Ribeiro, "undated". "Sentiment, Electoral Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Textos para discussão 655, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    9. Gropper, Daniel M. & Jahera, John S. & Park, Jung Chul, 2013. "Does it help to have friends in high places? Bank stock performance and congressional committee chairmanships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1986-1999.
    10. Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul, 2014. "Too close for comfort? Geographic propinquity to political power and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 57-78.
    11. Amore, Mario Daniele & Bennedsen, Morten, 2013. "The value of local political connections in a low-corruption environment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 387-402.
    12. repec:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3471-3518. is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political geography; Political connections; Policy risk; Returns; Performance;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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