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The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?

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  • Renaud Coulomb

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, Grantham Research Institute - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Marc Sangnier

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper simultaneously estimates the impact of political majorities on the values of firms that would benefit from the platforms of the two main candidates at the 2007 French presidential election, Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, and of those that are ruled or owned by Sarkozy's friends. We use prediction-market data to track each candidate's victory probability, and investigate how this relates to firms' abnormal returns. Our estimates suggest that the value of firms that would likely benefit from the platforms of Royal and Sarkozy changed by 1% and 2%, respectively, with the candidates' victory probabilities, and that firms connected to Sarkozy out-performed others by 3% due to his election.

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  • Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," Post-Print halshs-00990241, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00990241
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00990241
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    Cited by:

    1. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    2. Draca, Mirko & Garred, Jason & Stickland, Leanne & Warrinnier, Nele, 2018. "On Target? The Incidence of Sanctions Across Listed Firms in Iran," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 372, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Stefano DellaVigna & Ruben Durante & Brian Knight & Eliana La Ferrara, 2016. "Market-Based Lobbying: Evidence from Advertising Spending in Italy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 224-256, January.
    4. Gustav Axén & Dominic Cortis, 2020. "Hedging on Betting Markets," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-1, August.
    5. Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz & Andre Trindade, 2016. "Surprise Me If You Can: The Influence Of Newspaper Endorsements In U.S. Presidential Elections," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1484-1498, July.
    6. Alhashel, Bader S., 2020. "Hail to the chief: The effect of political alignment with the presidency on corporate investment," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Thomas Bourveau & Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2016. "Political Connections and Insider Trading," AMSE Working Papers 1635, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    8. Luechinger, Simon & Moser, Christoph, 2014. "The value of the revolving door: Political appointees and the stock market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-107.
    9. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2020. "Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite...Contamine? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 524, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    10. Brice Fabre & Marc Sangnier, 2017. "What Motivates French Pork: Political Career Concerns or Private Connections?," AMSE Working Papers 1705, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Audinga Baltrunaite, 2020. "Political Contributions and Public Procurement: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 541-582.
    12. Straub, Stéphane, 2014. "Political Firms, Public Procurement, and the Democratization Process," TSE Working Papers 14-461, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Lehrer, Nimrod David, 2018. "The value of political connections in a multiparty parliamentary democracy: Evidence from the 2015 elections in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 13-58.
    14. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00990241, HAL.
    15. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    16. Labonne, Julien, 2016. "Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 56-62.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    abnormal returns; prediction markets; political majority; firm value; political connections;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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