Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
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- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities," Working Paper Series 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
References listed on IDEAS
- Manski, Charles F., 2006.
"Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets,"
Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-815, August.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 03-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
- Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
More about this item
Keywordsbinary option; event future; futures; information market; Manski; options;
- D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
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