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Citations for "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities"

by Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric

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  1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," NBER Working Papers 12073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," AMSE Working Papers 1414, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised May 2014.
  3. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Discussion Papers 11-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
  5. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-336, May.
  6. Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012. "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 644-663.
  7. Béatrice Boulu-Reshef & Irene Comeig & Robert Donze & Gregory D. Weiss, 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01368197, HAL.
  8. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  9. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  10. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 5640, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
  12. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  13. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  14. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, 07.
  15. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," IDEI Working Papers 775, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  16. Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "Divided governments and futures prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 622-633.
  17. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  18. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Paolo Bizzozero & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2016. " The Importance of Suspense and Surprise in Entertainment Demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Working Papers 357, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  20. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Rothschild, David, 2015. "Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 952-964.
  22. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 1-578, May.
  23. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Party Influence in Congress and the Economy," NBER Working Papers 12751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
  25. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2016. "Far from the Madding Crowd: Collective Wisdom in Prediction Markets," LEM Papers Series 2016/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  26. Alina Beygelzimer & John Langford & David Pennock, 2012. "Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors," Papers 1201.6655, arXiv.org.
  27. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
  28. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "New uses for new macro derivatives," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug25, pages -.
  29. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  30. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  31. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  32. Urmee Khan, 2016. "State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic," Working Papers 201609, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  33. Tongkui Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1119, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
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