IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v76y2009i302p264-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?

Author

Listed:
  • ALBERT N. LINK
  • JOHN T. SCOTT

Abstract

An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of Department of Defense (DoD) Phase II awards suggests that the estimated probability of commercialization is only 0.47. We investigate econometrically whether outside private investors have useful information about proposed SBIR projects' prospects for commercialization. Our findings suggest that they do, thereby providing support for the possibility that a prediction market could improve the performance of the SBIR programme.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2009. "Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 264-281, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:264-281
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00740.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00740.x
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
    2. John Scott, 2000. "The Directions for Technological Change: Alternative Economic Majorities and Opportunity Costs," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, August.
    3. David B. Audretsch & Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2013. "Public/private technology partnerships: evaluating SBIR-supported research," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 5, pages 91-104, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    5. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Kohn, Meir & Scott, John T, 1982. "Scale Economies in Research and Development: The Schumpeterian Hypothesis," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 239-249, March.
    7. Martin, Stephen & Scott, John T., 2000. "The nature of innovation market failure and the design of public support for private innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 437-447, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2013. "Governments as entrepreneur: Evaluating the commercialization success of SBIR projects," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 2, pages 25-38, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. T. Aldridge & David Audretsch & Sameeksha Desai & Venkata Nadella, 2014. "Scientist entrepreneurship across scientific fields," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 39(6), pages 819-835, December.
    3. Barry Bozeman & Albert N. Link, 2015. "Toward an assessment of impacts from US technology and innovation policies," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 369-376.
    4. Andreas Panagopoulos & Elias Carayannis, 2013. "A policy for enhancing the disclosure of university faculty invention," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 341-347, June.
    5. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2013. "The exploitation of publicly funded technology," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 8, pages 127-135, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Donald Siegel & Charles Wessner, 2012. "Universities and the success of entrepreneurial ventures: evidence from the small business innovation research program," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 404-415, August.
    7. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2018. "Propensity to Patent and Firm Size for Small R&D-Intensive Firms," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(4), pages 561-587, June.
    8. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2013. "Employment growth from public support of innovation in small firms," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 3, pages 41-64, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Stojčić, Nebojša & Srhoj, Stjepan & Coad, Alex, 2020. "Innovation procurement as capability-building: Evaluating innovation policies in eight Central and Eastern European countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Haifeng Qian & Kingsley Haynes, 2014. "Beyond innovation: the Small Business Innovation Research program as entrepreneurship policy," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 524-543, August.
    11. David B. Audretsch & Dennis P. Leyden & Albert N. Link, 2013. "Universities as research partners in publicly supported entrepreneurial firms," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 12, pages 175-192, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Dora Gicheva & Albert Link, 2013. "Leveraging entrepreneurship through private investments: does gender matter?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 199-210, February.
    13. Scott, John T. & Scott, Troy J., 2016. "The entrepreneur's idea and outside finance: Theory and evidence about entrepreneurial roles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 118-130.
    14. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2013. "Employment growth from the Small Business Innovation Research program," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 4, pages 65-88, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. David B. Audretsch & Dennis P. Leyden & Albert N. Link, 2013. "Regional Appropriation of University-Based Knowledge and Technology for Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 27(1), pages 56-61, February.
    16. Kwangsoo Shin & Minkyung Choy & Chul Lee & Gunno Park, 2019. "Government R&D Subsidy and Additionality of Biotechnology Firms: The Case of the South Korean Biotechnology Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, March.
    17. Stuart D. Allen & Stephen K. Layson & Albert N. Link, 2013. "Public gains from entrepreneurial research: Inferences about the economic value of public support of the Small Business Innovation Research program," Chapters, in: Public Support of Innovation in Entrepreneurial Firms, chapter 6, pages 105-112, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Link, Albert N. & Scott, John T., 2013. "Bending the Arc of Innovation: Public Support of R&D in Small, Entrepreneurial Firms," UNCG Economics Working Papers 13-8, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
    19. Aldridge, T. Taylor & Audretsch, David, 2011. "The Bayh-Dole Act and scientist entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1058-1067, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:264-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.