IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2006iaug25n2006-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New uses for new macro derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Wolfers

Abstract

Economic forecasters often look to the performance of futures markets to help predict such economic developments as movements in the price of oil and other commodities. In addition, relatively new financial market instruments, like TIPS, help policymakers get a handle on the public's inflation expectations. ; In the last few years, derivatives markets involving bets on future economic events have emerged. In October 2002, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank joined forces to form a market in what they call "Economic Derivatives." More recently, other U.S.-based markets have been created for GDP and the international trade balance, and plans are underway for instruments on the U.S. CPI. ; This Economic Letter summarizes research by Gürkaynak and Wolfers (2005), which examines how these markets work and how useful they may be for economic predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Wolfers, 2006. "New uses for new macro derivatives," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug25.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2006:i:aug25:n:2006-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-21.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Derivative securities ; Macroeconomics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2006:i:aug25:n:2006-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.