IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v113y2011i3p276-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Jonsson, Thomas
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

We evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations and find that they are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Concerning out-of-sample forecast precision, survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. Caution should accordingly be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2011. "The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 276-281.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:276-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511003144
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
    4. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.
    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    3. repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1490-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    5. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2014. "Policy interest-rate expectations in Sweden: a forecast evaluation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 984-991, September.
    6. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0416-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey data; Forecasts; Sweden; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:276-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.