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The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations

  • Jonsson, Thomas
  • Österholm, Pär

We evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations and find that they are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Concerning out-of-sample forecast precision, survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. Caution should accordingly be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176511003144
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 113 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 276-281

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:276-281
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.013
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
  6. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
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