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The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

  • Jonsson, Thomas

    ()

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

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File URL: http://www.konj.se/download/18.42684e214e71a39d07239fd/1436518466230/Working-Paper-121-The+Forecasting+Properties-of-Survey-Based-Wage-Growth+Expectations.pdf
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Paper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Papers with number 121.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0121
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  1. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
  6. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
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