IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

  • David Kelly

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Miami)

  • David Letson

    ()

    (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami)

  • Forest Nelson

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business Administration, University of Iowa)

  • David S. Nolan

    ()

    (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami)

  • Daniel Solis

    ()

    (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami)

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bus.miami.edu/_assets/files/faculty-and-research/academic-departments/eco/eco-working-papers/wp2009-05-kelly-hfm3_1_09.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Miami, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0905.

as
in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 27 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming: Under Review
Handle: RePEc:mia:wpaper:0905
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 248126, Coral Gables, FL 33124-6550
Phone: (305) 284-5540
Fax: (305) 284-2985
Web page: http://www.bus.miami.edu/faculty-and-research/academic-departments/economics/index.html

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Trudy Cameron, 2005. "Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-97, January.
  2. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-56, December.
  3. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
  4. Yin, Runsheng & Newman, David H. & Siry, Jacek, 2002. "Testing for market integration among southern pine regions," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-166.
  5. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bruno Jullien & Bernard Salanié, 1997. "Estimating Preferences under Risk : The Case of Racetrack Bettors," Working Papers 97-39, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  7. Robert T. Clemen, 1987. "Combining Overlapping Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 373-380, March.
  8. John C. Whitehead, 2000. "“One Million Dollars a Mile? The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation,”," Working Papers 0005, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  10. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-36, May.
  11. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
  12. Robin Hanson, 2007. "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, February.
  13. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
  14. Viscusi, W Kip, 1997. "Alarmist Decisions with Divergent Risk Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1657-70, November.
  15. Viscusi, W Kip & Magat, Wesley A, 1992. " Bayesian Decisions with Ambiguous Belief Aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 371-87, October.
  16. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
  17. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  18. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
  19. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Miki Mitsunari, 2006. "Information regulation: Do the victims of externalities pay attention?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 141-158, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mia:wpaper:0905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher Parmeter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.