Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-
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Citations
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Cited by:
- Dirk Bergemann & Marco Ottaviani, 2021.
"Information Markets and Nonmarkets,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
2296, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
- Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
- Dean Foster & Rakesh Vohra, 2011. "Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice," Discussion Papers 1537, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2020. "Single vs. multiple disclosures in an experimental asset market with information acquisition," MPRA Paper 101035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Siemroth, Christoph, 2014.
"Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting,"
Working Papers
14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Page, Lionel & Siemroth, Christoph, 2017. "An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-378.
- Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021.
"How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence,"
Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.
- Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2018. "How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices? Experimental Evidence," QuBE Working Papers 054, QUT Business School.
- Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022.
"Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
- Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis & Carl Singleton, 2019. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
- Mark Richard & Jan Vecer, 2021. "Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.
- Edward Halim & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Nilanjan Roy, 2019.
"Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks, and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1975-2010, August.
- Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2017. "Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," MPRA Paper 80658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael D. Lee & Megan N. Lee, 2017. "The relationship between crowd majority and accuracy for binary decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 328-343, July.
- Jason Dana & Pavel Atanasov & Philip Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2019. "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(2), pages 135-147, March.
- Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 143-176, March.
- Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
- Schneider, Mark, 2020. "A bias aggregation theorem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
- Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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