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Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-

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  • Lionel Page
  • Robert T. Clemen

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  • Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:123:y:2013:i:568:p:491-513
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    21. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2007. "Outcome Manipulation in Corporate Prediction Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 554-563, 04-05.
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
    2. Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
    3. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2020. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Dean Foster & Rakesh Vohra, 2011. "Calibration: Respice, Adspice, Prospice," Discussion Papers 1537, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    5. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    6. Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2020. "Single vs. multiple disclosures in an experimental asset market with information acquisition," MPRA Paper 101035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    8. Page, Lionel & Siemroth, Christoph, 2017. "An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-378.
    9. Mark Richard & Jan Vecer, 2021. "Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Edward Halim & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Nilanjan Roy, 2019. "Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks, and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1975-2010, August.
    11. Michael D. Lee & Megan N. Lee, 2017. "The relationship between crowd majority and accuracy for binary decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 328-343, July.
    12. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2018. "How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices? Experimental Evidence," QuBE Working Papers 054, QUT Business School.
    13. Jason Dana & Pavel Atanasov & Philip Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2019. "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(2), pages 135-147, March.
    14. Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 143-176, March.
    15. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
    16. Schneider, Mark, 2020. "A bias aggregation theorem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis & Carl Singleton, 2019. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-20, Department of Economics, Reading University.

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