Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence
Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioural model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 1999 state elections.
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Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001.
"Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
2001,57, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
- Bohm, Peter & Sonnegard, Joakim, 1999. " Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 205-222, June.
- Potters, J.J.M. & Jacobsen, B. & Schram, A. & van Winden, F.A.A.M. & Wit, J., 2000.
"(In)accuracy of a European political stockmarket : The influence of common value structures,"
Other publications TiSEM
871eef99-1e85-4985-9e94-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Jacobsen, Ben & Potters, Jan & Schram, Arthur & van Winden, Frans & Wit, Jorgen, 2000. "(In)accuracy of a European political stock market: The influence of common value structures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 205-230, February.
- Guillermo Owen & Bernard Grofman, 1984. "To vote or not to vote: The paradox of nonvoting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 311-325, January.
- Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
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