Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence
Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company’s sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that well funded, single minded manipulators can in fact destroy a prediction market’s ability to aggregate information. Our results clearly indicate that the usefulness of prediction markets as inputs to decision making may be limited.
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- Koleman Strumpf & Paul Rhode, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
- Sumner Scott, 2006. "Let a Thousand Models Bloom: The Advantages of Making the FOMC a Truly 'Open Market'," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, October.
- Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
- Lee, Hyunok & Sumner, Daniel A. & Ahn, Byeong-il, 2006. "Consequences of further opening of the Korean dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 238-248, June.
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