IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chu/wpaper/20-27.html

Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?

Author

Listed:
  • Brice Corgnet

    (EMLYON Business School)

  • Cary Deck

    (University of Alabama & Chapman University)

  • Mark DeSantis

    (Chapman University)

  • David Porter

    (Chapman University)

Abstract

Using experimental asset markets, we study the situation of a financial analyst who is trying to infer the fundamental value of an asset by observing the market’s history. We find that such capacity requires both standard cognitive skills (IQ) as well as social and emotional skills. However, forecasters with high emotional skills tend to perform worse when market mispricing is high as they tend to give too much emphasis to the noisy signals from market data. By contrast, forecasters with high social skills perform especially well in markets with high levels of mispricing in which their skills could help them detect possible manipulation attempts. Finally, males outperform females in the forecasting task after controlling for a large number of relevant individual characteristics such as risk attitudes, cognitive skills, emotional intelligence, and personality traits.

Suggested Citation

  • Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers 20-27, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chu:wpaper:20-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_papers/322/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deck, Cary & Jun, Tae In & Razzolini, Laura & Reid, Tavoy, 2024. "Information aggregation with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    2. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Okada, Katsuhiko & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2025. "Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2023. "Managers’ choice of disclosure complexity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chu:wpaper:20-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Megan Luetje (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.