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Forecasting Skills in Experimental Market : Illusion or Reality?

Author

Listed:
  • Brice Corgnet

    (EM - EMLyon Business School, GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure-Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cary Deck

    (UA - University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa])

  • Mark Desantis

    (Chapman University)

  • David Porter

    (Chapman University)

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate regarding the degree to which a forecaster's ability to draw correct inferences from market signals is real or illusory. This paper attempts to shed light on the debate by examining how personal characteristics do or do not affect forecaster success. Specifically, we investigate the role of fluid intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind on forecast accuracy in experimental asset markets. We find that intelligence improves forecaster performance when market mispricing is low, manipulativeness improves forecaster performance when mispricing is high, and the degree to which theory of mind skills matter depends on both the level of mispricing and how information is displayed. All three of these results are consistent with hypotheses derived from the previous literature. Additionally, we observe that male forecasters outperform female forecasters after controlling for intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind skills as well as risk aversion. Interestingly, we do not find any evidence that forecaster performance improves with experience across markets or within markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Market : Illusion or Reality?," Post-Print hal-04325544, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04325544
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4160
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    Cited by:

    1. Deck, Cary & Jun, Tae In & Razzolini, Laura & Reid, Tavoy, 2024. "Information aggregation with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    2. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Okada, Katsuhiko & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2025. "Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2023. "Managers’ choice of disclosure complexity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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