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Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students

Author

Listed:
  • Bao, Te
  • Corgnet, Brice
  • Hanaki, Nobuyuki
  • Okada, Katsuhiko
  • Riyanto, Yohanes E.
  • Zhu, Jiahua

Abstract

We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Okada, Katsuhiko & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2025. "Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:46:y:2025:i:c:s2214635025000322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101051
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial forecasting; financial professionals; financial literacy; cognitive skills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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