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Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?

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  • Brice Corgnet

    (EM - EMLyon Business School, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cary Deck

    (UA - University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa])

  • Mark Desantis

    (Chapman University)

  • David Porter

    (Chapman University)

Abstract

Using experimental asset markets, we study the situation of a financial analyst who is trying to infer the fundamental value of an asset by observing the market's history. We find that such capacity requires both standard cognitive skills (IQ) as well as social and emotional skills. However, forecasters with high emotional skills tend to perform worse when market mispricing is high as they tend to give too much emphasis to the noisy signals from market data. By contrast, forecasters with high social skills perform especially well in markets with high levels of mispricing in which their skills could help them detect possible manipulation attempts. Finally, males outperform females in the forecasting task after controlling for a large number of relevant individual characteristics such as risk attitudes, cognitive skills, emotional intelligence, and personality traits.

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  • Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers halshs-02893291, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02893291
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02893291
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; experimental asset markets; theory of mind; personality traits; cognitive skills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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