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Exploring the Nature of 'Trader Intuition'

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine J. BRUGUIER

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Steven R. QUARTZ

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Peter BOSSAERTS

    (California Institute of Technology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. We hypothesized that ToM was involved after contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders. ToM refers to the innate human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH-like persistence in transaction price change that may help with reading markets when there are insiders.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine J. BRUGUIER & Steven R. QUARTZ & Peter BOSSAERTS, 2010. "Exploring the Nature of 'Trader Intuition'," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-02, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bossaerts, Peter & Suzuki, Shinsuke & O’Doherty, John P., 2019. "Perception of intentionality in investor attitudes towards financial risks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 189-197.
    2. Stöckl, Thomas & Palan, Stefan, 2018. "Catch me if you can. Can human observers identify insiders in asset markets?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    4. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Working Papers 2016, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Lambrecht, Marco & Sofianos, Andis & Xu, Yilong, 2021. "Does mining fuel bubbles? An experimental study on cryptocurrency markets," Working Papers 0703, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    6. Hamelin, Nicolas & Bonelli, Marco I., 2022. "Traders’ anticipatory feelings and traders’ profitability: An exploratory study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Michael Seiler & Eric Walden, 2015. "A Neurological Explanation of Strategic Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 215-230, August.
    8. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Tail events, emotions and risk taking," Working Papers halshs-02613344, HAL.
    9. Lambrecht, Marco & Sofianos, Andis & Xu, Yilong, 2020. "Does mining fuel bubbles? An experimental study on cryptocurrency markets," Working Papers 0690, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    10. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021. "Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    13. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    14. Huber, Christoph & Kirchler, Michael, 2023. "Experiments in finance: A survey of historical trends," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Merl, Robert, 2022. "Literature review of experimental asset markets with insiders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    16. Farago, Adam & Holmén, Martin & Holzmeister, Felix & Kirchler, Michael & Razen, Michael, 2019. "Cognitive Skills and Economic Preferences in the Fund Industry," OSF Preprints 964ba, Center for Open Science.
    17. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.

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