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Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students

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Listed:
  • Te Bao
  • Brice Corgnet
  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Katsuhiko Okada
  • Yohanes E. Riyanto
  • Jiahua Zhu

Abstract

We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1156r
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