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Designing real terrorism futures

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  • Robin Hanson

Abstract

In July 2003, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was described as terrorism futures, and immediately cancelled. While PAM was not in fact designed to be terrorism futures, I here consider five design issues with implementing and using real terrorism futures: combinatorics, manipulation, moral hazard, hiding prices, and decision selection bias. As neither these nor other problems seem insurmountable, terrorism futures appears to be a technically realistic possibility. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:128:y:2006:i:1:p:257-274
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-006-9053-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. John Quiggin, 2009. "Six Refuted Doctrines," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(3), pages 239-248, September.
    3. Bin-Tzong Chie & Chih-Hwa Yang, 2021. "Efficiency of the Experimental Prediction Market: Public Information, Belief Evolution, and Personality Traits," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 1-3.
    4. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
    5. Wolk, K.L. & Peeters, R.J.A.P., 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

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