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Designing real terrorism futures

  • Robin Hanson

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    In July 2003, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was described as terrorism futures, and immediately cancelled. While PAM was not in fact designed to be terrorism futures, I here consider five design issues with implementing and using real terrorism futures: combinatorics, manipulation, moral hazard, hiding prices, and decision selection bias. As neither these nor other problems seem insurmountable, terrorism futures appears to be a technically realistic possibility. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-006-9053-9
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

    Volume (Year): 128 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (July)
    Pages: 257-274

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:128:y:2006:i:1:p:257-274
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