Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence
Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioural model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 1999 state elections.
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"(In)accuracy of a European political stock market: The influence of common value structures,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 205-230, February.
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- Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001.
"Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective,"
Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics
05/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
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- Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
- Bohm, Peter & Sonnegard, Joakim, 1999. " Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 205-222, June.
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