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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective

  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Schmidt, Carsten

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.

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Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2001,57.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200157
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  1. Jacobsen, Ben & Potters, Jan & Schram, Arthur & van Winden, Frans & Wit, Jorgen, 2000. "(In)accuracy of a European political stock market: The influence of common value structures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 205-230, February.
  2. Robert Forsythe & Murray Frank & V. Krishnamurthy & Thomas W. Ross, 1995. "Using Market Prices to Predict Election Results: The 1993 UBC Election Stock Market," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 770-93, November.
  3. Bohm, Peter & Sonnegard, Joakim, 1999. " Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 205-22, June.
  4. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  5. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
  6. Beckmann, Klaus & Werding, Martin, 1996. "'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 171-204.
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