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'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment

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  • Beckmann, Klaus
  • Werding, Martin

Abstract

The authors present design and results of the 'Passauer Wahlborse,' a field experiment built on call market institution, which successfully predicted the outcome of the 1994 German Bundestag election. Building on theoretical and experimental literature, they discuss the determinants of individual trading behavior in a field environment and point at difficulties in analyzing the data generated by political market experiments. While previous explanations for the predictive success of these markets--i.e., the 'marginal trader hypothesis'--do not appear wholly convincing, the authors proffer an alternative that focuses on information costs and show that their findings are consistent with basic tenets from information economics. Copyright 1996 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Klaus & Werding, Martin, 1996. "'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 171-204.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:2:p:171-204
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    2. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Berlemann, Michael, 1999. "Wahlprognosen: Politische Wahlbörsen versus traditionelle Meinungsforschung," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/99, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    4. Gregor Bruggelambert, 2004. "Information and efficiency in political stock markets: using computerized markets to predict election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 753-768.
    5. Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, August.
    6. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

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