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Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose


  • Michael Berlemann


In den späten achtziger Jahren kam eine neue Prognosetechnik zur Anwendung: die Veranstaltung so genannter "experimenteller Aktienmärkte". Diese Technik wurde zunächst vorrangig im Bereich der Wahlprognose eingesetzt, später fand sie auch in anderen Bereichen Anwendung, so z.B. bei der betriebsinternen Projektüberwachung oder der Voraussage des Ausgangs von Referenden. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt die grundlegende Idee der Veranstaltung experimenteller Prognosemärkte dar und gibt einen Überblick über die bisher vorliegende empirische Evidenz. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass experimentelle Prognosemärkte eine sinnvolle Ergänzung zu existierenden Prognosemethoden sein können und sich auch zur Prognose makroökonomischer Eckdaten eignen. Insofern könnten sie in der Zukunft eine Ergänzung des traditionellen Konjunkturprognose-Instrumentariums darstellen.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:16:p:21-29

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Beckmann, Klaus & Werding, Martin, 1996. "'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 171-204.
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,57, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    4. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Tomáš Cahlík & Adam Geršl & Michal Hlaváček & Michael Berlemann, 2003. "Predikce využívající experimentální trhy
      [Predictions using experimental markets]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(6).
    6. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    7. Eichberger, Jurgen & Harper, Ian R., 1997. "Financial Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775409.
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    More about this item


    Konjunkturprognose; Aktienmarkt; Experiment; Prognose; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates


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