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Prediction Markets In The Laboratory

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  • Cary Deck
  • David Porter

Abstract

The idea that there is wisdom from the collective has been forcefully described in “The Wisdom of the Crowds” by James Surowiecki, who argues that the aggregation of information in groups results in better decisions than those that are afforded by any single member of the group. Markets, like opinion polls, are one mechanism for aggregating disparate pieces of information. The aggregation properties of prices were first noted by Hayek (1945) and were formally examined by Muth (1961). In particular, Hayek argues that market prices serve the purpose of sharing and coordinating local and personal knowledge, while Muth shows that markets do not waste information and that the current price contains all the information available from market participants.
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Suggested Citation

  • Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets In The Laboratory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 589-603, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:27:y:2013:i:3:p:589-603
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/joes.2013.27.issue-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2017. "Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," MPRA Paper 80658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2017. "Information (Non)Aggregation in Markets with Costly Signal Acquisition," Working Papers halshs-01686493, HAL.
    4. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2018. "How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices? Experimental Evidence," QuBE Working Papers 054, QUT Business School.
    5. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    6. Page, Lionel & Siemroth, Christoph, 2017. "An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-378.
    7. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
    8. Deck, Cary & Hao, Li & Porter, David, 2015. "Do prediction markets aid defenders in a weak-link contest?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 248-258.
    9. repec:spr:infosf:v:19:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10796-015-9617-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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