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Prediction Markets in the Laboratory

Author

Listed:
  • Cary Deck

    (University of Arkansas & Chapman University)

  • David Porter

    (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University)

Abstract

The idea that there is wisdom from the collective has been forcefully described in “The Wisdom of the Crowds” by James Surowiecki, who argues that the aggregation of information in groups results in better decisions than those that are afforded by any single member of the group. Markets, like opinion polls, are one mechanism for aggregating disparate pieces of information. The aggregation properties of prices were first noted by Hayek (1945) and were formally examined by Muth (1961). In particular, Hayek argues that market prices serve the purpose of sharing and coordinating local and personal knowledge, while Muth shows that markets do not waste information and that the current price contains all the information available from market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets in the Laboratory," Working Papers 13-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chu:wpaper:13-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.
    2. Mantovani, Marco & Filippin, Antonio, 2026. "When do prediction markets return average beliefs? Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 135-148.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
    4. Kai Fischer & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2025. "Pricing in response to new information: The case of betting markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(1), pages 236-264, January.
    5. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2022. "Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6716-6732, September.
    6. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    7. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
    8. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Roy, Nilanjan & Wang, Yan, 2022. "The Bright Side of Dark Markets: Experiments," MPRA Paper 111803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
    10. Corgnet, Brice & Deck, Cary & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2018. "Information (non)aggregation in markets with costly signal acquisition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 286-320.
    11. Deck, Cary & Hao, Li & Porter, David, 2015. "Do prediction markets aid defenders in a weak-link contest?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 248-258.
    12. Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Morone, Andrea & Alfarano, Simone, 2021. "Overweighting of public information in financial markets: A lesson from the lab," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Jaromír Kovářík & Levent Neyse, 2013. "Second-to-Fourth Digit Ratio Has a Non-Monotonic Impact on Altruism," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-10, April.
    14. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
    15. Page, Lionel & Siemroth, Christoph, 2017. "An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-378.
    16. Edward Halim & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Nilanjan Roy, 2019. "Costly Information Acquisition, Social Networks, and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1975-2010, August.

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