IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/infosf/v5y2003i1d10.1023_a1022002107255.html

Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Joyce E. Berg

    (University of Iowa)

  • Thomas A. Rietz

    (University of Iowa)

Abstract

Valuations from “prediction markets” reveal expectations about the likelihood of events. “Conditional prediction markets” reveal expectations conditional on other events occurring. For example, in 1996, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) ran markets to predict the chances that different candidates would become the Republican Presidential nominee. Other concurrent IEM markets predicted the vote shares that each party would receive conditional on the Republican nominee chosen. Here, using these markets as examples, we show how such markets could be used for decision support. In this example, Republicans could have inferred that Dole was a weak candidate and that his nomination would result in a Clinton victory. This is only one example of the widespread potential for using specific decision support markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce E. Berg & Thomas A. Rietz, 2003. "Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 79-93, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:infosf:v:5:y:2003:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1022002107255
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1022002107255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1022002107255
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1022002107255?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    2. Edmond Malinvaud, 1974. "The Allocation of Individual Risks in Large Markets," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques H. Drèze (ed.), Allocation under Uncertainty: Equilibrium and Optimality, chapter 8, pages 110-125, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. T. Reitz & R. Myerson & R. Weber, 1998. "Campaign Finance Levels as Coordinating Signals in Three‐way, Experimental Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 185-218, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas A. Rietz, 1991. "Arbitrage," Discussion Papers 958, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    2. Joyce E. Berg & George R. Neumann & Thomas A. Rietz, 2009. "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 348-361, March.
    3. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    4. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
    5. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1994. "Behaviour of a Small Political Call Market," Experimental 9410001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
    7. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    8. Andonie, Costel & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2012. "Pre-election polls as strategic coordination devices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 681-700.
    9. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    10. Paolo Siconolfi & Aldo Rustichini, 2012. "Economies with Observable Types," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 57-71, January.
    11. Sjur Didrik Flåm & Elmar G. Wolfstetter, 2015. "Liability Insurance and Choice of Cars: A Large Game Approach," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(6), pages 943-963, December.
    12. Dai, Min & Jia, Yanwei & Kou, Steven, 2021. "The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 561-578.
    13. Borglin, Anders & Flåm, Sjur Didrik, 2007. "Risk exchange as a market or production game," Working Papers in Economics 09/07, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    14. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
    15. Christensen, Peter Ove & Larsen, Kasper & Munk, Claus, 2012. "Equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1035-1063.
    16. Christoph Kuzmics & Daniel Rodenburger, 2020. "A case of evolutionarily stable attainable equilibrium in the laboratory," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(3), pages 685-721, October.
    17. Dilger, Alexander, 2016. "Bedingte Aktiengeschäfte," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 08/2016, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    18. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jorg & Roider, Andreas, 2007. "Herding with and without payoff externalities -- an internet experiment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 391-415, April.
    19. Sun, Xiang & Sun, Yeneng & Wu, Lei & Yannelis, Nicholas C., 2017. "Equilibria and incentives in private information economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 474-488.
    20. Herrade Igerseim & Antoinette Baujard & Jean-François Laslier, 2016. "La question du vote. Expérimentations en laboratoire et In Situ," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 151-189.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:infosf:v:5:y:2003:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1022002107255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.