Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such contexts many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people's beliefs are excessively sensitive to well-connected information sources, implying a pattern of "overshooting" beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation neglect not only drives overoptimism and overpessimism at the individual level, but also affects aggregate outcomes in a systematic manner. In particular, the excessive confidence swings caused by correlated signals give rise to predictable price bubbles and crashes. These findings are reminiscent of popular narratives according to which aggregate booms and busts might be driven by the spread of "stories". Our results also lend direct support to recent models of boundedly rational social learning.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grebe, Tim & Schmid, Julia & Stiehler, Andreas, 2008.
"Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? - An experimental study,"
Journal of Economic Psychology,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 197-209, April.
- Tim Grebe & Julia Schmid & Andreas Stiehler, 2006. "Do Individuals Recognize Cascade Behavior of Others? - An Experimental Study -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-079, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Grebe, Tim & Schmid, Julia & Stiehler, Andreas, 2006. "Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? An Experimental Study," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 180, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2012.
"Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1243-1285.
- Andrei Shleifer & Nicola Gennaioli & Pedro Bordalo, 2011. "Salience theory of choice under risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1442, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola, 2012. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," Scholarly Articles 10636303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, . "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," Working Paper 29210, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," NBER Working Papers 16387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008.
"Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3481, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2009. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Working Papers 0465, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2009. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Post-Print hal-00696620, HAL.
- Brian D. Kluger & Steve B. Wyatt, 2004. "Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 969-998, 06.
- Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2002.
"Evaluation Periods and Assett Prices in a Market Experiment,"
02-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2003. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 821-838, 04.
- Gneezy, U. & Kapteyn, A. & Potters, J.J.M., 2002. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Discussion Paper 2002-8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Reinhard Selten, 1998.
"Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule,"
Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
- Selten, Reinhard, 1996. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Discussion Paper Serie B 390, University of Bonn, Germany.
- George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
- repec:kap:expeco:v:1:y:1998:i:1:p:43-62 is not listed on IDEAS
- Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
- Luca Corazzini & Filippo Pavesi & Beatrice Petrovich & Luca Stanca, 2010.
"Influential Listeners: An Experiment on Persuasion Bias in Social Networks,"
196, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
- Corazzini, Luca & Pavesi, Filippo & Petrovich, Beatrice & Stanca, Luca, 2012. "Influential listeners: An experiment on persuasion bias in social networks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1276-1288.
- Camerer, Colin F, 1987. "Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 981-97, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.