Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule
In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises of how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic scoring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally, this rule was proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgments. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by four desirable properties. Copyright Economic Science Association 1998
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- James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
- Selten, Reinhard, 1991.
"Properties of a measure of predictive success,"
Mathematical Social Sciences,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April.
- Daniel Friedman, 1983. "Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 447-454, April.
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