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Tests des modèles de décision en situation de risque. Le cas des parieurs hippiques en France

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  • Ariane Charpin

Abstract

One of the most robust findings in the literature using data on horseraces bets is that odds associated to horses reflect their chances of winning very well, with the exception that favorites are underbet while outsiders are overbet.?Expected utility theory and behavioral theories of decision under risk compete to explain this finding.?This paper seeks to discriminate between the two classes of models by testing which is the most suited to explaining the behavior of bettors observed in the data.?Using a unique dataset of bets on horseraces in France, I find that behavioral theories of decision under risk better fit my data than expected utility. This result shows that behavioral theories provide a better representation of choice behavior than expected utility. Classification JEL : D81, L83.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane Charpin, 2018. "Tests des modèles de décision en situation de risque. Le cas des parieurs hippiques en France," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 69(5), pages 779-803.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_695_0779
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision making; expected utility; cumulative prospect theory; rank-dependent utility; probability weighting function; risk-aversion; representative bettor; favorite-longshot bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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