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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

  • Wolfers, Justin

    ()

    (University of Michigan)

  • Zitzewitz, Eric

    ()

    (Dartmouth College)

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management – in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1975.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1975
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  1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," NBER Working Papers 12073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities," Working Paper Series 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Wolfers Justin & Zitzewitz Eric, 2004. "Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-8, October.
  4. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  5. repec:reg:rpubli:430 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring.
  7. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  9. Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979. "Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge," Discussion Papers 377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Slemrod, Joel & Greimel, Timothy, 1999. "Did Steve Forbes scare the US municipal bond market?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 81-96, October.
  12. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
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