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Contingent determinants

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  • Maseland, Robbert

Abstract

We study the channels through which ‘deep’ historical or geographical determinants of development are connected to present outcomes. We distinguish three classes of theoretical processes that explain this connection—persistence, path-dependence due to multiple equilibria, and transitions between growth regimes—and explore the implications of each for the evolution of deep determinants’ impacts. Replicating the analyses of 43 determinants identified in the literature at different points in time, we find that the evolutionary pattern of the impact of determinants is mostly consistent with a hybrid theory of multiple equilibria and transitions between growth regimes. Specifically, we find that the effects of determinants are neither constant nor slowly waning over time, but appear to be increasing or peaking around the turn of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Maseland, Robbert, 2021. "Contingent determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s030438782100033x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102654
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deep determinants; Institutional persistence; Long term development; Replication; Path-dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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