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Considering the Counterfactual: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution

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  • Nicholas Crafts
  • Terence C Mills

Abstract

We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial Revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Crafts & Terence C Mills, 2022. "Considering the Counterfactual: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1994-2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:645:p:1994-2006.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueab081
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    Cited by:

    1. Romola J. Davenport, 2021. "Nineteenth‐century mortality trends: a reply to Szreter and Mooney," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1096-1110, November.
    2. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    3. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 309-338, May.

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