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Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2016. "Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 297, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:297
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    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/297-2016_crafts.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. F. R. Crafts & C. K. Harley, 1992. "Output growth and the British industrial revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 45(4), pages 703-730, November.
    2. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, N. F. R., 1996. "Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700-1913: A Reappraisal," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-295, July.
    3. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 774-811.
    4. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    5. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 221-244, October.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2018. "Cliometrics," Working Papers of BETA 2018-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. N. F. R. Crafts & T. C. Mills, 1994. "The industrial revolution as a macroeconomic epoch: an alternative view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(4), pages 769-775, November.
    8. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    9. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "Long-run growth empirics and new challenges for unified theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3973-3987, October.
    10. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 1994. "Rehabilitation sustained: the industrial revolution as a macroeconomic epoch," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(4), pages 760-768, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:ehsrev:v:71:y:2018:i:2:p:639-664 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth reversal; industrial revolution; Malthusian model; trend growth JEL Classification: N13; O47;

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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