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Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2016. "Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 297, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:297
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. F. R. Crafts & C. K. Harley, 1992. "Output growth and the British industrial revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 45(4), pages 703-730, November.
    2. Mills, Terence C. & Crafts, N. F. R., 1996. "Trend Growth in British Industrial Output, 1700-1913: A Reappraisal," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-295, July.
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    5. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    6. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(3), pages 221-244, October.
    7. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2018. "Cliometrics," Working Papers of BETA 2018-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. N. F. R. Crafts & T. C. Mills, 1994. "The industrial revolution as a macroeconomic epoch: an alternative view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(4), pages 769-775, November.
    9. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    10. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "Long-run growth empirics and new challenges for unified theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3973-3987, October.
    11. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Cliometrics," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-642-40406-1, September.
    12. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 1994. "Rehabilitation sustained: the industrial revolution as a macroeconomic epoch," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 47(4), pages 760-768, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Broadberry & Bruce M. S. Campbell & Alexander Klein & Mark Overton & Bas van Leeuwen, 2018. "Clark's Malthus delusion: response to ‘Farming in England 1200–1800’," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 639-664, May.
    2. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2023. "Of families and inheritance: law and development in England before the Industrial Revolution," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 387-432, September.
    3. José Luis Martínez-González & Jordi Suriñach & Gabriel Jover & Javier Martín-Vide & Mariano Barriendos-Vallvé & Enric Tello, 2020. "Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 233-249, May.
    4. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Andersson, Malin & Baccianti, Claudio & Morgan, Julian, 2020. "Climate change and the macro economy," Occasional Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    6. Judy Z. Stephenson, 2020. "Working days in a London construction team in the eighteenth century: evidence from St Paul's Cathedral," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 409-430, May.
    7. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    8. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    9. Lambert, Thomas, 2021. "The Baran Ratio, Investment, and British Economic Growth and Investment," MPRA Paper 109546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nicholas Crafts & Terence C Mills, 2022. "Considering the Counterfactual: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1994-2006.
    11. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2020. "The Race between Population and Technology: Real wages in the First Industrial Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 15174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    13. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2022. "The industrial revolution, an unintended consequence of self-defence?," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 159-164, March.
    15. Shah, Imran Hussain & Schmidt-Fischer, Francesca & Malki, Issam & Hatfield, Richard, 2019. "A structural break approach to analysing the impact of the QE portfolio balance channel on the US stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 204-220.
    16. Lambert, Thomas, 2021. "Conjectures of English and UK Economic Surplus, Investment, Tax Revenues and Deficit Amounts from the 13th to the 19th Century," MPRA Paper 109080, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth reversal; industrial revolution; Malthusian model; trend growth JEL Classification: N13; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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