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Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

  • William A. Branch
  • George W. Evans

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec?tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilib?rium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have im?portant implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201011.

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Date of creation: 15 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1011
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  1. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction, The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," IEW - Working Papers 130, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
  5. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2003. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/42, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
  8. Young, H. Peyton, 2004. "Strategic Learning and its Limits," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199269181, July.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2010. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  14. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  15. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
  16. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, . "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  17. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  19. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  20. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
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