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Liquidation, leverage and optimal margin in bitcoin futures markets

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  • Zhiyong Cheng
  • Jun Deng
  • Tianyi Wang
  • Mei Yu

Abstract

Using the generalized extreme value theory to characterize tail distributions, we address liquidation, leverage and optimal margins for bitcoin long and short futures positions. The empirical analysis of perpetual bitcoin futures on BitMEX shows that (1) daily forced liquidations to outstanding futures are substantial at 3.51% and 1.89% for long and short; (2) investors got forced liquidation do trade aggressively with average leverage of 60X; and (3) exchanges should elevate current 1% margin requirement to 33% (3X leverage) for long and 20% (5X leverage) for short to reduce the daily margin call probability to 1%. Our results further suggest that normality assumption on return significantly underestimates optimal margins. Policy implications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiyong Cheng & Jun Deng & Tianyi Wang & Mei Yu, 2021. "Liquidation, leverage and optimal margin in bitcoin futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(47), pages 5415-5428, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:47:p:5415-5428
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1922597
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Deng, Jun & Wang, Tianyi, 2024. "Arbitrage opportunities and efficiency tests in crypto derivatives," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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