IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v18y2014i4p63-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Imminent Housing Collapse - Will History Repeat Itself?

Author

Listed:
  • LAI, Ping-fu (Brian)

    (Division of Business and Management, United International College, Beijing Normal University Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • CHAN, Ho Sum

    (ABRS International Consultancy)

Abstract

Human being is not particularly good at learning from history. Either we haven't lived long enough to live through every moment of it, or we just forget what we have lived through. Today, many analysts' cranky critiques are still very bullish, and are trying hard to explain intuitively why Hong Kong property prices can't drop, and how much healthier the market is. However, a remarkably stagnant property market in terms of transaction volume, even though prices are still holding up for the time being, is far more sceptical about markets' inherent rationality. There is very little doubt that home prices are among the most expensive on earth; Demographic trend is working against the market; Economic uncertainties of U.S fiscal cliff increase; Mainland China slowdown curbs Hong Kong growth; Interest rates on the only way up; Government's moves to check speculation and the Illusion of supply shortage etc. This is the prerequisite to call anything a "bubble", and the property market in certainly meets these criteria. The purpose of this paper is to use an econometric model and descriptive statistical analysis to illustrate Hong Kong resident property prices correction is imminent today.

Suggested Citation

  • LAI, Ping-fu (Brian) & CHAN, Ho Sum, 2014. "The Imminent Housing Collapse - Will History Repeat Itself?," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(4), pages 63-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:18:y:2014:i:4:p:63-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol18i4p63-104.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2010. "Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking?," BIS Working Papers 298, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2010. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 121-129, September.
    4. Mr. Changchun Hua & Mr. R. S Craig, 2011. "Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong SAR: Implications for Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/277, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gorton, Gary B., 2012. "Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don't See Them Coming," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199922901.
    6. Katrin Assenmacher & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2014. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Bank Risk?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 95-136, March.
    8. Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang, 1999. "Land-Supply Restrictions, Developer Strategies and Housing Policies: The Case in Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 143-159.
    9. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    10. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
    11. Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
    12. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    14. Mr. Nathan Porter & Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," IMF Working Papers 2010/274, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Deniz O Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Eric Wong & Tom Fong & Ka-fai Li & Henry Choi, 2011. "Loan-to-Value Ratio as a Macro-Prudential Tool - Hong Kong's Experience and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 1101, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    17. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," Working Papers 1008, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    2. Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2011. "Are Housing Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," Working Papers id:3646, eSocialSciences.
    3. Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    5. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    6. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, June.
    8. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
    9. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    11. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    12. Raslan Alzubi & Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2017. "The Risk-Taking Channel in the US: A GVAR Approach," Working Papers 2017009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    13. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    14. Honglin Wang & Chu Zhang & Weihang Dai, 2013. "Rental Adjustment and Housing Prices: Evidence from Hong Kong's Residential Property Market," Working Papers 012013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    16. Gilles, Philippe & Huchet, Nicolas & Gauvin, Marie-Sophie, 2012. "Politique monétaire, choix de portefeuille du secteur bancaire et canal de la prise de risque," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 175-196, Juin.
    17. Andrew F. Haughwout & Donghoon Lee & Joseph Tracy & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2011. "Real estate investors, the leverage cycle, and the housing market crisis," Staff Reports 514, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Riley, Sarah F. & Ru, Hong Yu & Feng, Qing, 2013. "The User Cost of Low-Income Homeownership," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2).
    19. Nidia Ruth Reyes & José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2013. "Bank Lending, Risk Taking, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: New Evidence for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010970, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    20. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Property; Bubble; Resident; Hong Kong;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:18:y:2014:i:4:p:63-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.