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The Great Leveraging

In: The Social Value of the Financial Sector Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?

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  • Alan M. Taylor

    (University of California, Davis, USA and National Bureau of Economic Research, USA and Center for Economic Policy Research, UK)

Abstract

AbstractThe following sections are included:The Great Leveraging: Five Facts and Five Lessons for PolicymakersFact 1. Crises: Almost Forgotten, Now They’re BackFact 2. Consequences: Crises are Depressing and DeflationaryFact 3. Extreme Leverage: Size of the Banking Sector Is UnprecedentedFact 4. Global Asymmetry: EMs Buy Insurance, DMs Sell ItFact 5. Savings Glut: Short-Run Panic versus Long-Run DemographySumming Up the Facts: What Is Happening?Lesson 1: Past Private Credit Growth Does Contain Valuable Predictive Information About Likelihood of a CrisisLesson 2: As Symptoms of Financial Crises, External Imbalances Are a Distraction, and so Are Public DebtsLesson 3: After a Credit Boom, Expect a More Painful “Normal Recession” as Well as a More Painful “Financial Crisis Recession”Lesson 4: In a Financial Crisis with Large Run-Up in Private Sector Credit, Mark Down Growth/Inflation MoreLesson 5: In a Financial Crisis with Large Public Debt, and Large Run-up in Private Sector Credit Mark Down your Forecast Even MoreSumming Up: What Next for Macroeconomics and Policy?References

Suggested Citation

  • Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Great Leveraging," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Viral V Acharya & Thorsten Beck & Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & Richard Portes (ed.), The Social Value of the Financial Sector Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?, chapter 4, pages 33-65, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814520294_0004
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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
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    7. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    8. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colvin, Christopher L. & de Jong, Abe & Fliers, Philip T., 2015. "Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 97-121.
    2. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2017. "It ain’t over till it’s over: A global perspective on the Great Moderation-Great Recession interconnection," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(49), pages 4946-4969, October.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:573-593 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bpj:aelcon:v:9:y:2019:i:2:p:21:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    7. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Damian Tobin, 2013. "Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 81-99, May.
    10. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
    11. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. repec:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:1:p:e50-e67 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:germec:v:20:y:2019:i:4:p:e1028-e1053 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels, 2014. "1980–2008: The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine and What It Bodes for the Future," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-29, April.
    15. Antonio Torrero Mañas, 2014. "España, una recesión de balance," Working Papers 10/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    16. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    17. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    18. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    19. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    20. Domonkos Tomáš & Ostrihoň Filip & Šikulová Ivana & Širaňová Mária, 2017. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239(1), pages 32-52, February.
    21. Christopher M. Meissner, 2013. "Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 18814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Depository Institutions; Banks; Too-Big-to-Fail; Financial Innovations;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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