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The Great Leveraging

In: The Social Value of the Financial Sector Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?

Listed author(s):
  • Alan M. Taylor

    (University of California, Davis, USA and National Bureau of Economic Research, USA and Center for Economic Policy Research, UK)

AbstractThe following sections are included:The Great Leveraging: Five Facts and Five Lessons for PolicymakersFact 1. Crises: Almost Forgotten, Now They’re BackFact 2. Consequences: Crises are Depressing and DeflationaryFact 3. Extreme Leverage: Size of the Banking Sector Is UnprecedentedFact 4. Global Asymmetry: EMs Buy Insurance, DMs Sell ItFact 5. Savings Glut: Short-Run Panic versus Long-Run DemographySumming Up the Facts: What Is Happening?Lesson 1: Past Private Credit Growth Does Contain Valuable Predictive Information About Likelihood of a CrisisLesson 2: As Symptoms of Financial Crises, External Imbalances Are a Distraction, and so Are Public DebtsLesson 3: After a Credit Boom, Expect a More Painful “Normal Recession” as Well as a More Painful “Financial Crisis Recession”Lesson 4: In a Financial Crisis with Large Run-Up in Private Sector Credit, Mark Down Growth/Inflation MoreLesson 5: In a Financial Crisis with Large Public Debt, and Large Run-up in Private Sector Credit Mark Down your Forecast Even MoreSumming Up: What Next for Macroeconomics and Policy?References

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File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789814520294_0004
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This chapter was published in:
  • Viral V Acharya & Thorsten Beck & Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & Richard Portes (ed.), 2013. "The Social Value of the Financial Sector:Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8865, June.
  • This item is provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its series World Scientific Book Chapters with number 9789814520294_0004.
    Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814520294_0004
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    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    4. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 219-265, April.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    7. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    9. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, November.
    10. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    11. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
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