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One country, two “urban” systems: focusing on bimodality in China’s city-size distribution

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  • Xin Li

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Kyung-Min Nam

    (The University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

In this study, we demonstrate the existence of bimodality in China’s city-size distribution and develop an urban-growth forecast model that incorporates this bimodality. Main data for our analysis are $$0.{25}^{\circ }\times 0.{25}^{\circ }$$ 0 . 25 ∘ × 0 . 25 ∘ population density grids for the past 32 years, created from China’s official census data and county-level statistics. Our results show that the mixture of two Gaussian distributions outperforms unimodal distributions in explaining China’s historic urban-growth patterns, suggesting that the conventional unitary urban-hierarchy assumption lacks ground in China’s context. We also find that the higher-density mixture component increasingly dominates the entire distribution, and this gradual transition toward a unimodal city-size distribution is partly related to increased domestic population mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Li & Kyung-Min Nam, 2017. "One country, two “urban” systems: focusing on bimodality in China’s city-size distribution," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 427-452, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:59:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-017-0838-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-017-0838-1
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    2. Kyung-Min Nam & Xu Zhang & Min Zhong & Eri Saikawa & Xiliang Zhang, 2019. "Health effects of ozone and particulate matter pollution in China: a province-level CGE analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(2), pages 269-293, October.
    3. Kyung-Min Nam, 2017. "Is spatial distribution of China’s population excessively unequal? A cross-country comparison," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 453-474, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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